The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets recently by holding rates, but they remain highly vigilant on inflation and have explicitly stated their willingness to intervene in FX markets to support the franc. With global risk sentiment under pressure  and carry trades starting to unwind slightly  CHF stands to benefit as a defensive currency.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar is facing downward pressure from softer inflation momentum, weaker consumer sentiment data, and expectations of a more dovish Fed stance into Q4.

If equity volatility picks up or U.S. macro disappoints this week, USD/CHF could unwind lower, especially with the SNB unlikely to resist CHF strength near key inflation inputs.

SHORT USDCHF

2025年7月28日