The pound is under pressure from both fiscal risks and weak growth outlook. July saw increased speculation around Chancellor Reeves’ potential departure and further government fiscal slippage. UK consumer confidence is deteriorating (savings intentions at 2007 levels), and retail sales data have been disappointing. A stagflation-like environment is taking shape with sticky inflation and stalling GDP.

The BoE is expected to cut rates this week, and although they’ll likely communicate a “gradual and careful” easing path, the fundamental imbalance remains clear: growth is too soft to sustain current policy rates. Meanwhile, the USD remains bid on residual tariff optimism and market resilience, even if that may be reassessed post-CPI.

This creates a narrative divergence where GBP underperforms USD as macro risks compound in the UK.

SHORT GBPUSD

2025年8月4日