The recent imposition of a 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss imports adds a significant drag on Switzerland’s export-driven economy, particularly in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and medical devices. With exports to the U.S. accounting for ~6.5% of Swiss GDP, this shock is likely to weigh on both growth and inflation. The Swiss National Bank has already cut rates to zero, and markets are now pricing in negative rates by early 2026, putting the franc on the defensive.

On the other side, the yen has gained strength following the weaker-than-expected U.S. NFP, which led to aggressive unwinding of USD longs and a repositioning into safe havens. There’s now growing pressure on the BoJ to normalize policy, not purely due to inflation, but because of instability in the Japanese bond market. If fiscal stimulus adds more strain to the JGB market, the BoJ may be forced into a more hawkish posture.

This cross captures a weakening CHF narrative vs a strengthening JPY, underpinned by macro, policy, and positioning dynamics.

SHORT CHFJPY

2025年8月6日